Joni Mitchell 5 6 5 5 Capo III Dm Bb A A Dm Bb A A A G G A I awoke today and found the frost perched on the town A G G A It hovered in a frozen sky then it gobbled summer down D C When the sun turns traitor cold D C E E7 and all the trees are shivering in a naked row A G A I get the urge for going But I never seem to go G D A G D A I get the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown G D A A G A Summertime is falling down and winter is closing in A G G A I had a girl in summertime She had summer-colored skin A G G A And not another man in town My darling's heart could win D C But when the leaves fell on the ground D C E E7 And Bully winds came around and Pushed them face down in the snow A G A She got the urge for going and I had to let her go G D A G D A She got the urge for going When the meadow grass was turning brown G D A A G A Summertime is falling down and winter was closing in A G G A Now the warriors of win ter gave a cold triumphant shout A G G A And all that stays is dying ; all that lives is gettin' out D C See the geese in chevron flight D C E E7 Flapping and racing on before the snow A G G A They got the urge for going And they got the wings so they can go G D A G D A They get the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown G D A A G A Summertime is falling down and winter is closing in Dm Bb A 5 6 5 fret A G G A I'll ply the fire with kindling I'll pull the blankets up to my chin A G G A I'll lock the vagrant winter out and I'll bolt my wanderings in D C I'd like to call back summertime D C E E7 Have her stay for just another month or so A G G A But she’s got the urge for going So I guess she’ll have to go G D A G D A She gets the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown G D A A G A And all her empire is closing down and winter is closing in Here is an analysis of the chord progression in Nashville notation. Note the flat 7s and flat 3s. The 57 is the E7 the seventh of the fifth. When we transpose the A shapes to C shapes to remove the need for a capo we find that amazingly only two shapes, E-bar and A-bar are needed. C is played at the 8th fret with an E-bar shape. Bb is played at the 6th fret with an E-bar shape. F is played at the 8th fret with an A-bar shape Eb is played at the 6th fret with an A-bar shape G/G7 are played at the 5th fret with an E-bar shape Verse / 1 b7 b7 1 // 4 b3 / 4 b3 5 57 / 1 b7 1 / A Shapes / A G G A // D C / D C E E7 / A G A / C Shapes / C Bb Bb C // F Eb / F Eb G G7 / C Bb C / I'll ply the fire with kindling I'll pull the blankets up to my chin I'll lock the vagrant winter out and I'll bolt my wanderings in I'd like to call back summertime Have her stay for just another month or so But she’s got the urge for going So I guess she’ll have to go Chorus / b6 4 1 b6 b3 1 / b6 4 1 1 b6 1 / / G D A G D A / G D A A G A / / Bb F C Bb F C / Bb F C C Bb C / She gets the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown And all her empire is closing down and winter is closing in
For the first circle of 2022 I thought it time to “thank whatever gods there be. . .”, with apologies to WEH, for events of the past year, since my GOD is music and his prophet is J.S. Bach.
Thanks to Amanda McClean, for hosting Sharps in Isolation in London during this difficult time. Sharps set the standard for efficient use of time, for recording and cataloging every performance and for grace and tolerance of diverse points of view.
Thanks to Tim Mar and Stoo Born for continuing to host Music and More off main. This is an eclectic collection of musicians who usually allow their features to be recorded and who provide weekly entertainment for the community.
Thanks to John Wade for help and advice with the operations of our circle and for hosting the Brock Music circles in person where possible. We have had many good meeting in the tent in good weather and hope to Zoom on during the winter.
Thanks to Eric Hartman and the folks at PBOMS for keeping music alive on Zoom and for their recent efforts to reopen the ANZA club for music.
Thanks to Steve Deering for managing the Vancouver Folk Song Society and providing much needed technical expertise. Thanks to Christina Rae and Leona Axbey for organizing the bi-weekly Zoom sessions and keeping the folk alive.
Thanks to Watson Seto for suggesting I start a website for beginner guitar players and for his efforts to convince the board of VFSS to consider reopening the Quaker Hall. And a special thanks for continuing to run the in person song circles at Trout Lake. I will try and attend more often.
A very special thanks to John Lyon of the Deep Cove Coffee House. John has provided advice and support to both our circles and our website. He has shown us how to make music together over the internet using Jamulus and Sonobus and he is the most popular performer on the Pickers Circle channel.
Thanks to everyone who attended a pickers circle. Graham Baldwin has attended every circle and has been a valuable source of ideas for the organization. He is a man who will always do a request. Alan Sherman is an amazing guitarist with a fine background in early music. Garth Gibson has an endless repertoire of blues and country music. Don Gilbert has brought us many fine songs from the southern states, Nigel Bell has brought his blue grass collection to the circle and Stoo Born entertains us with country blues and Jazz. Stoo was kind enough to host a workshop on open tunings when our circles were just starting out. William Jordan has played us a tune or two and Amalah and Penelope Johnson have livened up what might otherwise become an exclusive boys club as have Di Skippen, Leona Axbey and Bibien Pierce.
Thanks to Rumi for putting up with the noise in the basement and many thanks to those who simply enjoy the videos and share them with their friends.
I have defined the center of this Blog as belonging to folks who may disagree but who are still willing to contemplate the possibility that they may learn something from folks on the other side. So for those who have nothing to learn from Fox News here is a Canadian perspective.
Today, in my inbox was a surprising article from a former CBC producer, Tara Henley, who has decided she can no longer work for that organization. The politics have become so one sided that her only recourse is to resign and become a journalist on Substack. Glenn Greenwald, founder of The Intercept, and a man worth singing about , along with Edward Snowden, has made a similar choice.
Tara makes the case that although she started out as a Canadian liberal her job has become impossible in the woke world of the CBC. Here is her story. https://tarahenley.substack.com/p/speaking-freely.
Suppose we divide the political landscape into four parts from left to right. The center is occupied by the productive and the compassionate. They engage in a rational discussion about how to make life better and how the good fortune of the most productive can be shared with those in need. They often disagree but respectful disagreement is the only way they know how to manage improvement in a complex environment. As soon as we get more than two people involved in a project things become complicated.
We can separate the “far” left and right from the center simply by their refusal to allow free speech. When people are not allowed to say stupid and hateful things we miss the opportunity to observe what idiots they are and how little attention they deserve. When I say something stupid, which happens from time to time, my friends will call me on it.
On the far left and the far right there is no room for discussion. You will do as they say or you will be attacked, de-platformed, lynched. Observe the KKK on the far right and the Cancel Crowd on the far left.
The world we live in is a complicated place. Most good stories have way more than two sides. I like to think of many things as being like a rubric cube with a different phrase on every minor face and at least six main themes that constantly change. Toss the cube. See what comes out on top.
Anyway to keep things simple I’ll have another look at Covid 19 in Canada. A family friend commented on my last post. What about the surge in cases? That is certainly another side to the story.
I often hear that cases are important because death follow about two weeks later. That is so but only on the x axis. The y values do NOT track.
Deaths in Black, Cases in Red, Tests in Gray. Even as the daily deaths have trended lower we have been testing our little hearts out. Unsurprisingly as the test go up so do the cases. We can see that peak deaths really do ‘follow’ the peak cases in time by a week or so but not in numbers. Cases are plotted on the secondary axis which is 60 times the primary axis. On that scale the deaths, the most important indicator, are just a black line at zero. Does that tell you something?
Let’s take a deeper look at the Covid 19 data for Canada.
- What is the story?
- Outbreaks come and go in waves.
- Each wave has a peak and a duration.
- Experts tell us that as a pathogen matures it often becomes less lethal
- Let’s start with the simplest model — y = ax + b the straight line.
- If this was a stock chart your broker would tell you to sell it now.
- Charles that is way too simple.
- OK. Lets look at some expert models from IHME.
- We often hear that growth of a new variant is exponential.
- That can be confirmed by looking at the start of every wave. Each wave starts out as an exponential – and then tops out. A better model for the next wave would be a gaussian – the bell curve loved by statisticians everywhere.
- Here are the “expert” projections from IHME. The dotted lines for future scenarios are shown on the right with a shaded area of uncertainty.
- The projection is for the doom to peak on Feb 23 at 0.26 deaths per 100 thousand. Without getting too far into the mathematics we can see that the width of the projection conforms approximately to the width of previous outbreaks and the height is a reasonable projection of the first two peaks .
- The model on the left is a 7 day rolling average which is used to “clean up” the picture of the past. I have already said I prefer to look at the raw numbers which allow me to estimate the uncertainty in the data as reported.
- Clearly the further apart we draw the black lines the less confidence we have in the data. The model in the previous figure appears very certain and precise. Right — the truth is likely in there somewhere.
- Notice how the uncertainty, the shaded portion of the projection, is much greater than the area between the black lines. The future is always uncertain but so are the past and the present. It is to the credit of IHME that they acknowledge the uncertainty in their projections if not in the reported data.
- The green line is the optimists projection. The “republican” view of the data. It is just as uncertain as the “expert” projections and could have been shown as a box. It says the death rate will be zero on Feb 23.
- IHME has another model, not shown, for Total deaths. We know this is a model because it gives us numbers about double those “reported”. What we do not know is exactly what fudge factor was used to transform reported data into “Total” data. We used to call these factors SWAG, like the green projection.
- Lest I appear too cynical about the science here is a wonderful video about the models we use to predict the high and low tides. These models are a beautiful use of mathematics to accurately predict a very complex phenomenon.
- “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”- George Box
How do you recognize a useful model? Simple. Good models make accurate verifiable predictions. Some examples are: tide tables, Google Maps trip times, and sunrise and sunset from my home automation setup DomoticZ.
A model in predictive form tells you the probability that an event will happen. The weatherman says forty percent chance of rain. You look out the window and the sun is shining. Oops. Weather forecasts are actually pretty good, mostly because they are so easy to verify and a lot of serious work has gone into their verification and calibration.
I’ll be back on Feb 23rd to see which model was closest to the truth.
Here are the first few circles of 2020.
Chromatic Scales The names of all the notes on the Fret board.
Sept 30 – Froggy Went a Courtin
Diatonic Scales Do re mi fa so la ti do. Everywhere in every key.
Capo V Dm - b = 90 Am C G Come gather all around me friends I'm glad to find you well Am G Sit right down beside me here -- a story I will tell Am C G Tis about one Edward Snowden a patriot of note Am Am E Am Who hacked away the N.S.A. and got Obama's goat C Our Eddie was a sys admin; a job that pays you well Am G But he couldn't stand the spying and he couldn't stand the smell Am C G Of a hundred million e-mails - that would make the Stasi proud Am Am E Am As they vacuum up the contents of the systems in the cloud Am C G So one day Eddie writes a note to a fellow name of Glen Am G Glen Grenwald at the Intercept; a fellow with a pen Am C G I have a tale says Eddie that will put you on the floor Am Am E Am But first you need to a secret way to speak to Citizen Four C We need to use encryption , we need pretty good privacy Am G To keep our secrets out of sight of the spying agency Am C G We’re gonna need a password when we put things in the mail Am E G And we need a damn good password to be staying out of jail Now Glen was just a newby, hardly heard of P.G.P. But he had a friend in Laura who already had a key Together they got started with a system known as TAILS They conjured up a master key; we hope it never fails The files are at the Intercept-go read ‘em if you dare The movie got an Oscar but nobody seems to care A hundred million phone calls; that would make the Stazi proud As they vacuum up the contents of the systems in the cloud Am C G It's better than a year now since Ed left his cushy post Am G And flitted off to Moscow with Putin for a host Am C G So now he's living quietly a guru of the net Am Am E Am Who better knows the secrets that can make old Biden sweat C Go look at those secret files; you scarce believe your eyes Am G A hundred million secrets here -- a hundred million lies Am C G Both Microsoft and Yahoo helping spooks read all the mail Am E Am And Clapper lies to Congress -- but he never goes to jail Am C G I'm just an old curmudgeon and I never thought I'd see Am G A good man has to hide away in Moscow to be free Am C G A hundred million phone calls; that would make the Stasi proud Am E Am As they vacuumed up the contents of the systems in the cloud C It's all to make us safer –sure Its all to keep us free Am G That's why they read the e-mails of the likes of you and me Am C G A hundred million e-mails - that would make the Stasi proud Am E Am As they vacuumed up the contents of the systems in the cloud
A 3 2 0 2 Bm Bmaj7 5 I'm dream ing of a white Christmas D 4 5 E7 10 9 7 A Just like the ones I used to know 0 2 2 F#7 0 D Dm7 Where the treetops glisten and children listen A 3 2 0 2 Bm E7 3 2 0 To hear sleigh bells in the snow A 3 2 0 2 Bm Bmaj7 5 I'm dream ing of a white Christmas D 4 5 E7 10 9 7 A With every Christmas card I write D7/D May your days be merry and bright A D E7 A And may all your Christmases be white This arrangement in 4/4 time has the melody mostly on the top two strings. The numbers are the fret numbers of the melody on either the b or e strings. The E7 chord is usually played on the 7th fret 779797 except for the last line in each verse where it is the usual E7 in first position.
W5 Who? What? When? Where? Why?
What is the story? What is the evidence? What are the models?
There was a Covid 19 outbreak in Canada in 2020 that began in March, killed 9100 people and was over by Aug 5. The second wave began in September and was mostly done by march 29,2021. It killed an additional 13,840 for an accumulated total of 22940. The third wave peaked on May 9th at 24683 with an additional 1740 people dead. The most recent outbreak peaked Oct, 13 2021 with a cumulative total of 29258 and 4575 dead in the last wave.
This is the data I look at when I need to ‘fact check’ God’s IT department or Dr. Facuci himself. This website, at the University of Washington, has a user interface designed to allow anyone with an internet connection to view and compare data for an endless number of scenarios.
If you want to look at Social Distancing, or Mask Use, or Vaccinations for a province or almost any country in the world the data is just a click away. Suppose we want to compare Canada to British Columbia.
Notice that I have selected per 100k to make a fair comparison between the country and a province. I have removed the smoothing so that you can observe the variance in the data. I’m using reported data not a model. So what’s the story? I’d say we started out in better shape than most of Canada but soon caught up and now we are not any better off than average, for Canada.
And finally you might notice that the reported deaths per 100,000 Canadians are very very low and each wave appears to be less lethal than the previous. May be time to boot Dr. Fauci?
If you read this far and need a movie . . .