China next?

Here is the Steering Group for, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

Several of these folks are referenced in material on this site.

  • Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret.) and Division Director, State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
  • Bogdan Dzakovic, former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security (ret.) (associate VIPs)
  • Graham E. Fuller,Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
  • Philip Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
  • Larry Johnson, former CIA Intelligence Officer & former State Department Counter-Terrorism Official (ret.)
  • Michael S. Kearns, Captain, USAF Intelligence Agency (ret.), former Master SERE Instructor
  • John Kiriakou, former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
  • Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., US Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense
  • Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst; CIA Presidential briefer (ret.)
  • Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council & CIA political analyst (ret.)
  • Pedro Israel Orta, former CIA and Intelligence Community (Inspector General) officer
  • Todd Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
  • Scott Ritter, former MAJ., USMC, former UN Weapon Inspector, Iraq
  • Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
  • Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (Retired)/DIA, (Retired)
  • Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Foreign Service Officer (resigned in opposition to the war on Iraq)

Here is their take on the Pelosi trip to Taiwan.

Wm. Briggs on Covid

Early in the panic Briggs made the point that when we decide to analyse data we take it as it is. That means the following charts are from CDC data as reported, warts and all. We don’t question the numbers. We draw most of our conclusions from the raw data and when a model is employed that is highlighted in the commentary. I was once asked how could I be sure this was “good CDC data” so I spent a couple of hours downloading the data for “Total deaths from All Causes” into MS Excel. I was able to reproduce the graphs exactly.

Uke Update July 10

Mr. McGovern, 74, is a veteran Army officer who also served as an analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency for 27 years. Mr. McGovern wrote for the President’s daily brief under Presidents Nixon and Ford. From 1981 to 1985, he personally briefed this publication in the morning one-on-one to Vice President George H. W. Bush, the Secretaries of State and Defense, and other senior officials of the administration of Ronald Reagan.

Upon retirement in early 1990, Mr. McGovern was awarded the Intelligence Commendation Award for his particularly commendable service and received a laudatory farewell letter from then-President George H. W. Bush.

Thirteen years later, Mr. McGovern co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity to expose that intelligence was being falsified by the U.S. government to justify war on Iraq.

Thoughts on Current Events


The idiocracy has attacked Dr. Bonnie Henry for remarks about hand washing. Hand washing has a long and respectable track record unlike masks and Dr. Henry has been the voice of reason in British Columbia these past years. While I sometimes think she has gone too far with the restrictions she has the expertise and the responsibility for the public health. I continue to respect and support her efforts.

Many of our local music scenes are now open and unmasked. These include the Brock Music circle, St Clements Church in North Vancouver, and events at the ANZA Club. It is to be hoped that the people who make policy at Music off Main and the VFSS will realize that more and more folks have had enough already. This is a tough job but I think they are up to it.


The war is not going well. For a unique Canadian perspective you can follow the exploits of Wali and Shadow.

From the CBC we have shadows war.

Wali was a very accomplished member of the Royal 22nd Regiment, the Van Doos. When I was training at Camp Wainwright, Alberta, Sgt. Haskins our DI made a point of telling young recruits be very careful around these gentlemen. They are very good at what they do. What they do according to Sgt Haskins is “Kill the enemy and destroy his stuff”. That is the job of a soldier and the Van Doos, Wali and Shadow, are some of our best.

I’ve been following these events since February because we finally going on our European tour. Needless to say we are not planning to travel anywhere near to the Ukraine.

Ukraine May 1, 2022

This war is going into its third month and to some it is a conflict rather larger than just a “Special Operation” in the Ukraine. Our friend John Wade has created a marvelous rant about Poppa Putin that we enhanced with images that reflect his thoughts. This has already become the second most viewed video on the website.

I am not convinced. There are a number of American citizens and green card holders who see good reasons for Putin’s recent actions.

Russia and America are at war.   So far just a proxy war but this could change.  I believe the Americans have been told that they will be ultimately responsible for any escalation outside of the boundaries of the Ukraine.   By that I mean they will not be protected by the moat of the Atlantic Ocean as they have been in past wars.   This is making some people in the US military cautious.   The economic war started with sanctions and has developed some nasty blowback.   We already have higher prices.  Keep some food supplies on hand.   Europe is going to pay for critical Russian exports in rubles or starve in the winter.  The Americans have given everyone with a stake in their economy sufficient reason to, at a minimum, diversify.  Gold?  Bitcoin?  Yuan? Roubles?

So far the Americans are winning the Information war, in the west, but only about half of the world’s population has bought in to attacking the Russian economy.  According to sources familiar with Russian military strategy the invasion is going very much according to plan.   Scott Ritter has an excellent, widely quoted, summary of progress to date.  

The main concern that I have, as a Canadian, is that we live too close to the US border and we rely too much on food supplies from California.  Should things get nasty down south we might start wishing we had a wall.

So if you think we might already be in the midst of WWIII here is short list of current sources:

  • Larry C Johnson is a veteran of the CIA and the State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. He is the founder and managing partner of BERG Associates, which was established in 1998. Larry provided training to the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. He has been vilified by the right and the left, which means he must be doing something right.
  • James G. Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, investment banker, speaker, media commentator, and author on matters of finance and precious metals. He is the author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and six other books. He lives in New Hampshire. His thoughts are here.
  • Douglas Macgregor, Colonel U.S. Army (Retired), Ph.D. Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, the author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant. He was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel.  He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia. Here is his blog.
  • Dr. Fredrick Kagin — for the sake of a complete picture have a look at the Institute for the Study of War. This is a think tank that is often cited as authoritative by the MSM. Compare their projections with those of the folks above and see who is right so far. HIs interview with Dr. Jordan Peterson just as the war began is here.

I continue to follow Russian media in the full knowledge that they may be no more reliable than Fox News and CBC. From what I can see of video that has been published the Ukraine side is not doing well and the Russians appear to have shrugged off sanctions that amount to total economic war. We can only hope that the warfare remains economic and conventional.

Ukraine – Some expert Analysis

This is a widely quoted thread by Scott Ritter. It is consistent with the viewpoint of Russian sources.

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.

Scott Ritter – Twitter thread

The war is not over. The economic warfare will continue. Putin has announced that he will deliver commodities only in exchange for rubles.

Great job Joe.

In a note published earlier, Zoltan Pozsar, Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse, wrote this crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 – the end of the era of commodity-based money. When this crisis is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker. He believes the global monetary system will never be the same post the crisis. Here are his thoughts on the economic implications of the war.

What before why.

Only people with a decent understanding of what is going on have any credibility when it comes to explaining why it happened. This is why I pay very little attention to journalists. Often wrong; never in doubt. It is possible to find people with experience in a field who have spent a lot of time explaining and predicting events in their domain. This is the place to start. Start reading people who have been right once or twice. Then read their detractors.

I still find it difficult to ascertain what is going on with the Ukraine. Experts on both sides of the issue tell very different stories. Several readers have offered their own analysis. I ask people to just tell me what is going to be the resolution of this affair? To be right about the future requires an understanding of the present.

The conventional wisdom has it that Russia has made a terrible mistake which has already failed and so Putin is headed for the dustbin of history. Hardly anyone is interested in what the Russian’s claim were the causes of the affair. Several bloggers with relevant expertise such as John Mearsheimer, Scott Ritter, Colonel Douglas Macgregor and Andrei Martyanov tell us that the Russians are grinding the Ukrainians into the dust. They claim that both Ukraine and the US dollar are in serious trouble. Russia is demanding payment for energy in rubles.

When experts disagree the intelligent layman will withhold judgement.

Bertrand Russell

Putin has been nominated for a very select club. Recent members include, Saddam Hussain, Muammar Gadhafi and Bashar al-Assad. None of these are nice people; the majority are dead. The western media consensus is that Putin will be dead and gone, the sooner the better. Andrei Martyanov, who has written several books on military affairs says Putin is doing what he said he would do and he will become the honored leader of a great power.

Both sides can’t be right so I’m with Russell. I shall wait and see what happens.

Here for your amusement is an update on the Black-faced Weasel.

An Update on the Conflict

Two events in the recent past tell me that institutions in the west are less than trustworthy. First, the action by the Canadian Government taken to freeze bank accounts of its citizens with no claim that any law was broken. Second, the action of the US government to freeze the accounts of a Central Bank. Serious investors wonder where their money is safe.

Most readers of this blog will be fully aware of the American position which is well represented by Dr. Kagan and the ISW so what follows is the story from the far side. Be warned, this will be harder to read than Fox News.

An alternative history of the conflict in Ukraine. Root Causes of the War and some remarks by President Zelensky quoted from a CNN transcript.

I requested them personally to say directly that we are going to accept you into NATO in a year or two or five. Just say it directly and clearly or just say no, and

the response was very clear, you are not going to be a NATO or E.U. member, but publicly the doors will remain open.

I asked them about preemptive sanctions, I talked about Nord Stream 2, we were discussing all of it, and simultaneously we were strengthening our army because with neighbors like this, like we have, this is the only way out.

And here is an essay on the Chinese viewpoint that will not be much comfort to anyone who get most of his news on foreign affairs’ from the Economist.

John Mearsheimer Ukraine-Russia 2022 Analysis

John Joseph Mearsheimer (/ˈmɪərʃaɪmər/; born December 14, 1947) is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.

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