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John Mearsheimer Ukraine-Russia 2022 Analysis

John Joseph Mearsheimer (/ˈmɪərʃaɪmər/; born December 14, 1947) is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.

This video has been viewed 20 Million times

I Ain’t Marchin Anymore

Phil Ochs
        G            C         D
Oh, I marched to the battle of New Orleans, 
       G          C             D
at the end of the early British wars 
    G                    C
The young land started growing, 
       Am                Em
the young blood started flowing, 
       Am       C    D
but I ain't marchin' anymore 
 
         G                  C
For I've killed my share of Indians,
       D
in a thousand different fights, 
      G            C          D
I was there at the Little Big Horn 
    G             C           Am        Em
I heard many men lying, I saw many more dying, 
    Am        C         D
but I ain't marchin' anymore 
 
          Am     C          G              Em
     It's always the old to lead us to the wars, 
     Am         Em       Am
     it's always the young to fall 
         Am                              Em
     Now look at all we've won, with the saber 
                                          and the gun, 
     C             Am       D
     tell me is it worth it all?

For I stole California from the Mexican land
Fought in the bloody Civil War
Yes, I even killed my brothers
And so many others
But I ain’t marching anymore

For I marched to the battles of the German trench
In a war that was bound to end all wars
Oh, I must have killed a million men
And now they want me back again
But I ain’t marching anymore

Chorus

For I flew the final mission in the Japanese skies
Set off the mighty mushroom roar
When I saw the cities burning
I knew that I was learning
That I ain’t marching anymore

Now the labor leader’s screamin’
When they close the missile plants
United Fruit screams at the Cuban shore
Call it peace or call it treason
Call it love or call it reason
But I ain’t marching anymore
No, I ain’t marching anymore

War in Ukraine

I think I remember a CIA sponsored coup in 21014 so you may want to quit reading here if the other side of the story is going to offend you. We’ll start with a discussion by Dr. Jordan Peterson and Dr. Frederick W. Kagan. This episode was recorded on February 27, 2022. Dr. Frederick W. Kagan is a former professor of history with a PhD in Russian and Soviet military history from Yale.

So what do I think? Well, “I ain’t marching anymore.” – Phil Ochs, pretty much sums it up. The Ukraine is a long way from Canada and very close to Russia. “The first casualty of war is truth.” If you carefully read both sides you may figure it out. If you really want to know what is going on read both updates every day.

I think Dr. Kagan has perhaps the most detailed view of the conflict from the MSM Western perspective and you have unlimited sources of American information so I’ll concentrate on the other side of the story.

Here is Scott Ritter’s view of the conflict. William Scott Ritter Jr.  is a former US Marine and was a United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq from 1991 to 1998. He later became a critic of United States foreign policy in the Middle East.

John Joseph Mearsheimer  is an American political scientist and international relations scholar. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. 

An Introduction to Video Editing

  1. Use your phone or camera to create a 5 min video.
  2. Down load and install ShotCut — free open source editing software
  3. Learn to use the Playlist and the Player to make clips which are short portions of your input video. Arrange the clips in the Playlist.
  4. Learn to export one or more clips. This allows you to pick and choose what is in your final product.
  5. Learn how to make a Title clip and if desired a credits clip.
  6. Learn to EXPORT your final product. Start by just exporting the whole Playlist.
  7. The TIMELINE is for detailed edits, one frame at a time and for fancy effects. Ignore it for now.

Most video editors work on the principle of a story board or a playlist which is used to accumulate short clips which will be assembled on a Timeline into the final product. With Shotcut you can ignore the Timeline until you are comfortable with the process of selecting and trimming clips.

Editing large files, say 30 minutes, or very large files, over 2 hours, is an interesting challenge that can be solved with Shotcut by cutting the original large file into clips in the playlist and editing each clip as a separate project. For pickers circle edits I make each round a separate file then combine them into a final exported video once the edits are done. This keeps memory and CPU resources to a manageable size.

Belated Valentine

  • Too bad we can’t meet in person. I’m always open to suggestions.
  • I don’t wear a mask except as legally required. I avoid venues where this is the case.
  •   Sing what you like.   Be careful everything is recorded.   Anyone who would like to make their own recording just ask and I’ll be happy to show you how it’s done.   

For those with an interest in current events, here are a few thoughts.

This episode was recorded on February 19th, 2022. Rex Murphy joins Dr. Jordan Peterson to discuss the most recent actions of Trudeau’s Government, including the arresting of protestors, the freezing of the bank accounts of Canadians suspected of participating in the protests, and the long-term consequences of these extreme measures. Rex is a Canadian commentator and author who deals primarily with Canadian political and social matters. He is best known for working on and for CBC Here and Now, CBC Radio 1’s Cross Country Checkup, writing for The Globe and Mail, and writing for The National Post.

“All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing”  — Edmund Burke

I’ve done enough for a while unless I add a verse or two to some songs that I wrote.

Convoy 2022

This is an annotated protest song. Links lead to the stories in the news that support the text or to documents from reliable sources. Thanks to CW McCall for the inspiration:

  1. A – Its been two years with the place locked down
  2. G – and everybody wearing a mask
  3. D – You meet your friends – you can’t see them frown
  4. A – Are they happy? Don’t even ask
  5. A – John Hopkins says lockdowns don’t work
  6. G – World Health says the same about masks
  7. D – Justin says we’re a tiny fringe
  8. A – We better take him to task.
  • ‘Cause we got a little ol’ convoy     F    C
  • Rockin’ through the night             G    C
  • Yeah, we got a little ol’ convoy    F    C
  • Ain’t she a beautiful sight?          G    E
  • Come on and join our convoy           F    C
  • Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way   G    C
  • We gonna roll this truckin’ convoy   F    C
  • Ottawa all the way                       G    E
  1. A – The conservatives ditched that fool O’Tool
  2. G – Maybe things are goin right
  3. D – Some say, “What we need is a case in court”
  4. A – Brian Peckford says he’s in the fight
  5. A – Constitution Act of ’82
  6. G – Stick that in yer craw
  7. D – Freedom to Travel is a human right
  8. A – Supposed to be the bloody law
  • So we got a little ol’ convoy     F    C
  • Rockin’ through the night             G    C
  • Yeah, we got a little ol’ convoy    F    C
  • Ain’t she a beautiful sight?          G    E
  • Come on and join our convoy           F    C
  • Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way   G    C
  • We gonna roll this truckin’ convoy   F    C
  • Ottawa all the way                       G    E
  1. A – Was the dark of the moon on the sixth of June  
  2. G – In a Kenworth pullin’ logs                     
  3. D – Cab-over Pete with a reefer on                  
  4. A – And a Jimmy haulin’ hogs                        
  5. A – We is headin’ for bear on I-one-oh              
  6. G – ‘Bout a mile outta Shaky Town                    
  7. D – I says, “Pig Pen, this here’s the Rubber Duck   
  8. D – “And I’m about to put the hammer down”          
  • ‘Cause we got a little ol’ convoy     F    C
  • Rockin’ through the night             G    C
  • Yeah, we got a little ol’ convoy    F    C
  • Ain’t she a beautiful sight?          G    E
  • Come on and join our convoy           F    C
  • Ain’t nothin’ gonna get in our way   G    C
  • We gonna roll this truckin’ convoy   F    C
  • Ottawa all the way                       G    E
  • A –
  • G –
  • D –
  • A – more to come put your verses in the comments.
  • A –
  • G –
  • D –
  • A –

       

Stick it to the Man – Feb 9

Protest Songs.

Seems like we all need to vent a bit now and then.   Anyone with a suitable song can protest whatever they dislike the most on Feb 9 at 7pm.   If you  can play a tune, you are welcome to set your favorite rant to music.   

Those looking for a world class source of opinion journalism can hardly do better than to read the Resignation Letter of Bari Weiss from the New York Times.  If you have an hour to spare you can follow that up with an in depth discussion on you tube.

Urge for Going

Joni Mitchell       5     6    5    5  
        Capo III    Dm    Bb   A    A    Dm    Bb   A  A   
A                 G          G                    A
I awoke today and found  the frost perched on the town
  A             G                   G              A
It hovered in a frozen sky  then it gobbled summer down
D                  C
When the sun turns traitor cold 
    D                 C              E      E7
and all the trees are shivering in a naked row
   A               G                         A
I get the urge for going  But I never seem to go

  G        D       A              G               D      A
I get the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown
G              D       A       A         G       A
Summertime is falling down and winter is closing in

A               G                   G              A
I had a girl  in summertime She had summer-colored skin
     A          G                G                     A
And not another man  in town  My darling's heart could win
    D                    C
But when the leaves fell on the ground
    D                  C                     E              E7
And Bully winds came around and Pushed them face down in the snow
      A              G                           A
She  got the urge for going and I had to let her go
  
 G           D        A              G                D        A
She got  the urge for going When the meadow grass was turning brown
G     D          A             A          G       A
Summertime is falling down and winter was closing in

A                   G                        G               A
Now the warriors of win ter           gave a cold triumphant shout
A                    G                   G                A
And all that stays is dying ;   all that lives is gettin' out
D                C
See the geese in chevron flight 
D             C        E            E7
Flapping and racing on before the snow
  A                    G                    G                    A 
They got the urge for going And they got the wings  so they can go

 G           D        A              G               D           A
They get the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown
G     D       A                A         G       A
Summertime is falling down and winter is closing in

Dm    Bb   A           5  6  5    fret
 
A                      G                      G                 A
I'll ply the fire with kindling I'll pull the blankets up to my chin
A             G                           G                  A
I'll lock the vagrant winter out and I'll bolt my wanderings in
D                            C
I'd like to call back summertime
D                 C            E        E7
Have her stay for just another month or so
A                 G                   G                     A 
But she’s got the urge for going So I guess she’ll have to go

G            D         A             G               D           A
She gets the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown
G             D       A                A         G        A
And all her empire is closing down and winter is closing in
 
Here is an analysis of the chord progression in Nashville notation.  Note the flat 7s and flat 3s.  The 57 is the E7  the seventh of the fifth.   When we transpose the A shapes to C shapes to remove the need for a capo we find that amazingly only two shapes, E-bar and A-bar are needed.

C is played at the 8th fret with an E-bar shape.
Bb is played at the 6th fret with an E-bar shape.
F is played at the 8th fret with an A-bar shape
Eb is played at the 6th fret with an A-bar shape
G/G7 are played at the 5th fret with an E-bar shape

Verse
 / 1  b7   b7   1   //   4  b3   /  4    b3    5  57   /   1  b7  1 /         
A Shapes  
/  A   G   G    A   //   D   C   /   D   C     E  E7   /   A   G  A /      
C  Shapes 
/  C  Bb   Bb   C   //   F   Eb  /   F   Eb    G  G7   /   C  Bb  C /      

I'll ply the fire with kindling I'll pull the blankets up to my chin
I'll lock the vagrant winter out and I'll bolt my wanderings in
I'd like to call back summertime
Have her stay for just another month or so
But she’s got the urge for going So I guess she’ll have to go

  Chorus 
/  b6   4    1    b6   b3   1   /   b6   4   1      1    b6   1 /                            
/  G    D    A     G    D   A   /   G    D   A      A    G    A /
/  Bb   F    C    Bb    F   C   /   Bb   F   C      C    Bb   C /


She gets the urge for going When the meadow grass is turning brown
And all her empire is closing down and winter is closing in

 

Becoming Professional

I have some questions regarding folk music in Vancouver.  One is whether you have any advice for me on the possibility of doing some folk songs in a local pub or restaurant. First of all, it’s clear that I’ll have to wait until Covid restrictions are cancelled. 

As far as I can tell there is a ladder to climb in the music business that look like:

  • Play in your basement
  • Play for your family and friends
  • Play open mics –  mostly on Zoom these days   
    • Jam at Trout Lake with the Bluegrass folks. 
    • Vancouver Folk Song Society – meetings on Wednesdays,  Pacific Bluegrass and Old Time music — meet Mondays
    • Music and More off Main – meets Thursdays on Zoom – used to be a coffee house in a neighborhood house
    • Pickers Circle –  meetings on Wednesdays  —  small group everyone welcome  — some good pros hang out there

All of the above pay only what you get out of them for entertainment and self-improvement. Paid gigs are tough.

  • There are Facebook groups for Vancouver Musicians.   Not many old folkies, but some.
  • Rogue Folk club would be the next place I might try but they appear to be pretty high end.
  • Some local restaurants  have live music.  Bring your set list and talk to the manager.  A demo tape or a Youtube channel is helpful here.
  • Rent the Quaker hall.   Sell Tickets to your friends and family.   This may or not be a break even effort but could still be a better investment than studio time.  Quaker Hall is a possibility if we get past Covid.  The folk song society will help if you are a member.
  • There are other possible venues to rent if Quaker Hall sells out.
  • Take your show on the road.   

The second question deals with recording.  I’d like to make a file of, say, ten or a dozen songs that I could give out to family and friends.  What I’d need is someone who has the technical ability to record me to the best advantage.  Ideally it would be someone with a lot of experience who could advise me on volume, style, etc.  I’d like to do some different songs now while I am still physically able.

This is a really good idea.  My best advice here is use Audacity on a Windows machine or Garage Band if you have a Mac.  I can help out with Audacity but my Mac experience is near zero.  Zoom recording is not studio quality but is sufficient for what used to be called demo tapes. Recording is much more stressful than just playing for friends and recording studios are not cheap. You should be comfortable in front of a microphone before you start hiring pros.


If you make a lot of your own recordings and some of them are pretty good then you are in a better position to spend money on studio time.  One of my reasons for hosting the Pickers Circle is to provide a place where everyone gets recorded.   It is easy to create a web page of links to you tube videos.    Here is an example:  https://pickerscircle.ca/home/performers/alan-sherman/

Another alternative once you have material is to  create your own channel on You Tube.  The bottom line is you should record a whole lot of material and hang around with people who play a lot.  If you record everything you do you will get better.   If you are good enough already then take your best recordings and your set list around to spots that have live music.   

Another Year Another Circle

For the first circle of 2022 I thought it time to “thank whatever gods there be. . .”, with apologies to WEH, for events of the past year, since my GOD is music and his prophet is J.S. Bach.

Thanks to Amanda McClean, for hosting Sharps in Isolation in London during this difficult time. Sharps set the standard for efficient use of time, for recording and cataloging every performance and for grace and tolerance of diverse points of view.

Thanks to Tim Mar and Stoo Born for continuing to host Music and More off main. This is an eclectic collection of musicians who usually allow their features to be recorded and who provide weekly entertainment for the community.

Thanks to John Wade for help and advice with the operations of our circle and for hosting the Brock Music circles in person where possible. We have had many good meeting in the tent in good weather and hope to Zoom on during the winter.

Thanks to Eric Hartman and the folks at PBOMS for keeping music alive on Zoom and for their recent efforts to reopen the ANZA club for music.

Thanks to Steve Deering for managing the Vancouver Folk Song Society and providing much needed technical expertise. Thanks to Christina Rae and Leona Axbey for organizing the bi-weekly Zoom sessions and keeping the folk alive.

Thanks to Watson Seto for suggesting I start a website for beginner guitar players and for his efforts to convince the board of VFSS to consider reopening the Quaker Hall. And a special thanks for continuing to run the in person song circles at Trout Lake. I will try and attend more often.

A very special thanks to John Lyon of the Deep Cove Coffee House. John has provided advice and support to both our circles and our website. He has shown us how to make music together over the internet using Jamulus and Sonobus and he is the most popular performer on the Pickers Circle channel.

Thanks to everyone who attended a pickers circle. Graham Baldwin has attended every circle and has been a valuable source of ideas for the organization. He is a man who will always do a request. Alan Sherman is an amazing guitarist with a fine background in early music. Garth Gibson has an endless repertoire of blues and country music. Don Gilbert has brought us many fine songs from the southern states, Nigel Bell has brought his blue grass collection to the circle and Stoo Born entertains us with country blues and Jazz. Stoo was kind enough to host a workshop on open tunings when our circles were just starting out. William Jordan has played us a tune or two and Amalah and Penelope Johnson have livened up what might otherwise become an exclusive boys club as have Di Skippen, Leona Axbey and Bibien Pierce.

Thanks to Rumi for putting up with the noise in the basement and many thanks to those who simply enjoy the videos and share them with their friends.