What before why.

Only people with a decent understanding of what is going on have any credibility when it comes to explaining why it happened. This is why I pay very little attention to journalists. Often wrong; never in doubt. It is possible to find people with experience in a field who have spent a lot of time explaining and predicting events in their domain. This is the place to start. Start reading people who have been right once or twice. Then read their detractors.

I still find it difficult to ascertain what is going on with the Ukraine. Experts on both sides of the issue tell very different stories. Several readers have offered their own analysis. I ask people to just tell me what is going to be the resolution of this affair? To be right about the future requires an understanding of the present.

The conventional wisdom has it that Russia has made a terrible mistake which has already failed and so Putin is headed for the dustbin of history. Hardly anyone is interested in what the Russian’s claim were the causes of the affair. Several bloggers with relevant expertise such as John Mearsheimer, Scott Ritter, Colonel Douglas Macgregor and Andrei Martyanov tell us that the Russians are grinding the Ukrainians into the dust. They claim that both Ukraine and the US dollar are in serious trouble. Russia is demanding payment for energy in rubles.

When experts disagree the intelligent layman will withhold judgement.

Bertrand Russell

Putin has been nominated for a very select club. Recent members include, Saddam Hussain, Muammar Gadhafi and Bashar al-Assad. None of these are nice people; the majority are dead. The western media consensus is that Putin will be dead and gone, the sooner the better. Andrei Martyanov, who has written several books on military affairs says Putin is doing what he said he would do and he will become the honored leader of a great power.

Both sides can’t be right so I’m with Russell. I shall wait and see what happens.

Here for your amusement is an update on the Black-faced Weasel.

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